By — Bella Isaacs-Thomas Bella Isaacs-Thomas Leave your feedback Share Copy URL https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/love-it-or-hate-it-winter-plays-an-important-role-heres-how-its-changing Email Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Tumblr Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Already missing winter? Here’s what we lose when the season warms up Science Updated on Mar 6, 2024 8:50 AM EDT — Published on Mar 5, 2024 12:16 PM EDT Between head-spinning temperature swings, historic wildfires, brutal cold spells and powerful storms, this past winter could be dramatic and in some cases devastating. As the season nears its official end, people across the United States are grappling with how different the season looks now compared to how they remember it, and the range of emotions those changes invoke. If you’ve noticed that the coldest months of the year don’t seem to get so cold anymore, you’re not alone. For most of the nation, winter is the fastest warming season, according to analysis from Climate Central. Map by Climate Central How the season looks depends on where you live, but warming winters raise alarm among climate experts because higher-than-usual temperatures can influence a long list of environmental phenomena that affect the well-being of both people and ecosystems. One region may see more pests that stick around longer than they used to, for example, while another might experience a reduction in crucial mountain snowpack. Those changes can have major implications for the natural and built environments, with cascading consequences for us and for wildlife. READ MORE: ‘We’re frankly astonished.’ Why 2023’s record-breaking heat surprised scientists Unless humans dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will experience “a worsening” of the conditions we’re already seeing, said Heidi Roop, an assistant professor of climate science at the University of Minnesota. Unusual events that were once considered one-offs — what she refers to as “postcards from the future” — are reminders that climate change is already here, and we’re on track to see far more of its effects. “We are marching towards a profoundly different future and, in some cases, we don’t even know what that entirely will mean, except for that it’s going to amplify many of the costs and consequences [of climate change],” said Roop. But that doesn’t mean humanity is powerless. The choices we make today, Roop emphasized, determine what our collective future holds. Here’s a look at some major ways winter has changed across the U.S. as a result of climate change, according to researchers and the most recent National Climate Assessment (NCA5), a periodic report that details the present and future challenges of climate change. The bad news about less snow Few people relish shoveling out their cars or walkways in a blizzard’s aftermath. But snow is still for many a cherished, cozy hallmark of winter, and it plays a major role in lots of ecosystems, too. Due to climate change, though, more precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow as winter brings fewer cold days across much of the country, said Darrian Bertrand, climate assessment specialist at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program at the University of Oklahoma. Around 80 percent of weather monitoring stations across the contiguous U.S. have seen a drop in the amount of precipitation that falls as snow, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Across the eastern U.S., rapid warming in winter is particularly notable at night, when temperatures usually are lowest, said Elizabeth Burakowski, a climate scientist at the University of New Hampshire. When they don’t consistently drop below freezing, a “critical threshold” is crossed, she said. READ MORE: Climate change is hitting close to home for nearly 2 out of 3 Americans, poll finds “That just spells bad news for any sort of frozen state of water that you might be desiring for either snow or for ice, and all of the ecosystem and community benefits that frozen water brings to us,” Burakowski said. One of those benefits is spring snowmelt that feeds water supplies particularly for millions of people in Western states. That includes Colorado, where mountain snowpack is a key source of water, said John Fasullo, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He noted that in Colorado, the snow that typically sticks around at higher elevations offers a “natural reservoir” that melts gradually through the summer, supplying water to surrounding communities. But climate change more quickly depletes this reservoir, Fasullo said. He added that the supply doesn’t last through the summer the way it used to, leaving it up to artificial reservoirs “fill the void.” Snowpack also has an effect on wildfires. The ground stays wet longer when snow remains through the spring and summer, which the EPA said influences when fire season starts and how severe it will be. Many creatures that hunker down for the winter need the snowpack for crucial habitat. That’s because the temperature is more stable beneath a few inches of snow, where animals are also generally better protected from predators, Burakowski said. Without that layer, she added, the ground can freeze solid, posing a challenge to animals that rely on subterranean burrows for shelter. In places that don’t typically see snow — like California and other Western states — winters are becoming wetter, causing storms that can sometimes bring catastrophic events like flooding and landslides. Meanwhile, if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, the bulk of the snow in New England is projected to disappear by the end of the century, said Pamela Templer, professor and chair of the department of biology at Boston University. Economic sectors and culture suffer, too Climate change is associated with costly damage, and it can wreak havoc across the economy. Agriculture is particularly reliant on the seasons. Fasullo noted that in California’s Central Valley, winter nights that are too warm are associated with decreased yields among fruit and nut trees. That’s also a problem in the Southeast, where warmer winter temperatures are associated with fewer “chill hours” that fruits need to grow, plus earlier blooms among some crops, according to the NCA5. READ MORE: Why extreme cold weather events still happen in a warming world Winter recreation takes a major hit, too. Skiing, snowboarding and snowmobiling enthusiasts across the country are facing shorter, less consistent seasons for their sports of choice. Burakowski noted that although some industry players have invested in snowmaking equipment to make up for lacking natural snowfall, that alternative isn’t yet consistent across those sports, and more casual participants have few options. “For a casual skier like myself, I typically like to go just right out my back door into the trails that are available in my community,” Burakowski said. “And I can’t do that now when there’s not enough snow.” As part of a recent project, Burakowski and her collaborators conducted interviews with people who act as guides for ice climbing around New Hampshire’s Mount Washington. The relatively niche sport can be unsafe when temperatures get high enough that the ice melts. “In talking with them, they clearly experience what the data shows,” Burakowski said. “You almost don’t need the data — they know, they’re out there every day, and they’re experiencing it.” Climate change also affects hunting as a pastime and food source. In the Southern Great Plains, drought and warming temperatures are projected to alter where animals live and contribute to decreasing weight and size among some species of prey, Bertrand noted, pointing to the NCA5. “Whenever we see warmer temperatures, we see shifting habitats and ranges in plant and animal species, which we expect to continue as temperatures increase over time,” she said. A boon for pests There are few winners when it comes to warmer winters, but pests like ticks and mosquitoes and invasive species rank among the lucky. Higher temperatures help them survive the season and spread into new territory. In the case of disease vectors and hosts, that expansion can pose a threat to human health, Bertrand said. Animals suffer those consequences, too. Moose, for example, are especially under siege due to more prolific ticks. READ MORE: Landmark report details how human activities can disrupt animal migrations “Cold winters have been a natural mechanism for containing pests and disease outbreak… And we aren’t having those as regularly,” Roop said. She noted that in the Midwest, for example, cold weather days kill off pests like pine bark beetles, which can take a major toll on forests. The Southwest is also seeing more outbreaks of these beetles amid warmer winters, according to the EPA. Invasive species pose a major threat to ecosystems across the country. In the Northeast, persistent cold snaps as severe as -30°F are key for helping to keep destructive pests like southern pine beetles and hemlock woolly adelgids at bay, Burakowski said. Worse potholes, and other threats to infrastructure Wherever you live, your local infrastructure was built to operate under certain conditions. As winter weather becomes more erratic, things are bound to hit more bumps in the road – in some places, literally. In Minnesota, more freeze-thaw cycles — or temperatures that fluctuate above and below freezing — are exacerbating potholes on roadways, Roop said. She also noted that snow typically acts as a kind of insulator that limits how far a deep freeze can penetrate the ground. But when cold can reach farther into the soil — like in the southern parts of the Midwest, which Roop said is projected to see less persistent snowpack over time — it can jeopardize infrastructure like septic systems that were originally supposed to be buried deep enough to avoid the threat of freezing temperatures. READ MORE: How winter weather can affect your drinking water Extreme weather events can reveal critical weak points in larger infrastructure systems, too. In February 2021, the central U.S. saw a rare but not unprecedented winter storm that led to extended power outages and boil water advisories in many communities, Bertrand said. More than 200 people died as a direct or indirect result of the storm. Black and brown communities shouldered a disproportionate burden in terms of losing power. Non-white populations experienced more of those outages at the time — regardless of their income level — as a result of “long-standing marginalization,” according to the NCA5’s Southern Great Plains chapter, which Bertrand co-authored. It’s possible to winterize energy grids to withstand colder temperatures, she noted, and El Paso, Texas, is an example of how to pull that effort off. That city made widespread improvements to its power infrastructure following an extreme cold event in 2011. Those efforts later paid off when El Paso suffered fewer outages in 2021, according to the NCA5. “I think that one’s a really good kind of success story of what you can do, and that it actually worked,” Bertrand said. Still time to ‘tap the brakes’ Even as communities and ecosystems feel the disorienting results of a warming world, experts say there is still time to take action. The mandate is in part a practical one. Failing to mitigate and adapt to climate change, Bertrand emphasized, comes with a “far greater” cost than the one associated with paying to prevent future expensive damages. She also noted that there are plenty of examples of communities taking the reins on those efforts. READ MORE: How to slash emissions across the U.S. economy, according to experts For Roop, encouraging more people to both recognize the threat of climate change and see themselves as part of the solution is top of mind. No single effort can solve these myriad challenges, but she believes this crisis presents an opportunity for thoughtful conversations about shared priorities and what we want our communities to look like moving forward. That’s important, Roop said, because the choices we make today shape our future reality. “I don’t want anyone to get [the] impression that it’s game over,” Burakowski said. “It’s definitely game on. It’s time to really get super serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, to tap the brakes on this warming and bring this freight train to a halt.” By — Bella Isaacs-Thomas Bella Isaacs-Thomas Bella Isaacs-Thomas is a digital reporter on the PBS NewsHour's science desk. @bella_is_
Between head-spinning temperature swings, historic wildfires, brutal cold spells and powerful storms, this past winter could be dramatic and in some cases devastating. As the season nears its official end, people across the United States are grappling with how different the season looks now compared to how they remember it, and the range of emotions those changes invoke. If you’ve noticed that the coldest months of the year don’t seem to get so cold anymore, you’re not alone. For most of the nation, winter is the fastest warming season, according to analysis from Climate Central. Map by Climate Central How the season looks depends on where you live, but warming winters raise alarm among climate experts because higher-than-usual temperatures can influence a long list of environmental phenomena that affect the well-being of both people and ecosystems. One region may see more pests that stick around longer than they used to, for example, while another might experience a reduction in crucial mountain snowpack. Those changes can have major implications for the natural and built environments, with cascading consequences for us and for wildlife. READ MORE: ‘We’re frankly astonished.’ Why 2023’s record-breaking heat surprised scientists Unless humans dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will experience “a worsening” of the conditions we’re already seeing, said Heidi Roop, an assistant professor of climate science at the University of Minnesota. Unusual events that were once considered one-offs — what she refers to as “postcards from the future” — are reminders that climate change is already here, and we’re on track to see far more of its effects. “We are marching towards a profoundly different future and, in some cases, we don’t even know what that entirely will mean, except for that it’s going to amplify many of the costs and consequences [of climate change],” said Roop. But that doesn’t mean humanity is powerless. The choices we make today, Roop emphasized, determine what our collective future holds. Here’s a look at some major ways winter has changed across the U.S. as a result of climate change, according to researchers and the most recent National Climate Assessment (NCA5), a periodic report that details the present and future challenges of climate change. The bad news about less snow Few people relish shoveling out their cars or walkways in a blizzard’s aftermath. But snow is still for many a cherished, cozy hallmark of winter, and it plays a major role in lots of ecosystems, too. Due to climate change, though, more precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow as winter brings fewer cold days across much of the country, said Darrian Bertrand, climate assessment specialist at the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program at the University of Oklahoma. Around 80 percent of weather monitoring stations across the contiguous U.S. have seen a drop in the amount of precipitation that falls as snow, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Across the eastern U.S., rapid warming in winter is particularly notable at night, when temperatures usually are lowest, said Elizabeth Burakowski, a climate scientist at the University of New Hampshire. When they don’t consistently drop below freezing, a “critical threshold” is crossed, she said. READ MORE: Climate change is hitting close to home for nearly 2 out of 3 Americans, poll finds “That just spells bad news for any sort of frozen state of water that you might be desiring for either snow or for ice, and all of the ecosystem and community benefits that frozen water brings to us,” Burakowski said. One of those benefits is spring snowmelt that feeds water supplies particularly for millions of people in Western states. That includes Colorado, where mountain snowpack is a key source of water, said John Fasullo, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He noted that in Colorado, the snow that typically sticks around at higher elevations offers a “natural reservoir” that melts gradually through the summer, supplying water to surrounding communities. But climate change more quickly depletes this reservoir, Fasullo said. He added that the supply doesn’t last through the summer the way it used to, leaving it up to artificial reservoirs “fill the void.” Snowpack also has an effect on wildfires. The ground stays wet longer when snow remains through the spring and summer, which the EPA said influences when fire season starts and how severe it will be. Many creatures that hunker down for the winter need the snowpack for crucial habitat. That’s because the temperature is more stable beneath a few inches of snow, where animals are also generally better protected from predators, Burakowski said. Without that layer, she added, the ground can freeze solid, posing a challenge to animals that rely on subterranean burrows for shelter. In places that don’t typically see snow — like California and other Western states — winters are becoming wetter, causing storms that can sometimes bring catastrophic events like flooding and landslides. Meanwhile, if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, the bulk of the snow in New England is projected to disappear by the end of the century, said Pamela Templer, professor and chair of the department of biology at Boston University. Economic sectors and culture suffer, too Climate change is associated with costly damage, and it can wreak havoc across the economy. Agriculture is particularly reliant on the seasons. Fasullo noted that in California’s Central Valley, winter nights that are too warm are associated with decreased yields among fruit and nut trees. That’s also a problem in the Southeast, where warmer winter temperatures are associated with fewer “chill hours” that fruits need to grow, plus earlier blooms among some crops, according to the NCA5. READ MORE: Why extreme cold weather events still happen in a warming world Winter recreation takes a major hit, too. Skiing, snowboarding and snowmobiling enthusiasts across the country are facing shorter, less consistent seasons for their sports of choice. Burakowski noted that although some industry players have invested in snowmaking equipment to make up for lacking natural snowfall, that alternative isn’t yet consistent across those sports, and more casual participants have few options. “For a casual skier like myself, I typically like to go just right out my back door into the trails that are available in my community,” Burakowski said. “And I can’t do that now when there’s not enough snow.” As part of a recent project, Burakowski and her collaborators conducted interviews with people who act as guides for ice climbing around New Hampshire’s Mount Washington. The relatively niche sport can be unsafe when temperatures get high enough that the ice melts. “In talking with them, they clearly experience what the data shows,” Burakowski said. “You almost don’t need the data — they know, they’re out there every day, and they’re experiencing it.” Climate change also affects hunting as a pastime and food source. In the Southern Great Plains, drought and warming temperatures are projected to alter where animals live and contribute to decreasing weight and size among some species of prey, Bertrand noted, pointing to the NCA5. “Whenever we see warmer temperatures, we see shifting habitats and ranges in plant and animal species, which we expect to continue as temperatures increase over time,” she said. A boon for pests There are few winners when it comes to warmer winters, but pests like ticks and mosquitoes and invasive species rank among the lucky. Higher temperatures help them survive the season and spread into new territory. In the case of disease vectors and hosts, that expansion can pose a threat to human health, Bertrand said. Animals suffer those consequences, too. Moose, for example, are especially under siege due to more prolific ticks. READ MORE: Landmark report details how human activities can disrupt animal migrations “Cold winters have been a natural mechanism for containing pests and disease outbreak… And we aren’t having those as regularly,” Roop said. She noted that in the Midwest, for example, cold weather days kill off pests like pine bark beetles, which can take a major toll on forests. The Southwest is also seeing more outbreaks of these beetles amid warmer winters, according to the EPA. Invasive species pose a major threat to ecosystems across the country. In the Northeast, persistent cold snaps as severe as -30°F are key for helping to keep destructive pests like southern pine beetles and hemlock woolly adelgids at bay, Burakowski said. Worse potholes, and other threats to infrastructure Wherever you live, your local infrastructure was built to operate under certain conditions. As winter weather becomes more erratic, things are bound to hit more bumps in the road – in some places, literally. In Minnesota, more freeze-thaw cycles — or temperatures that fluctuate above and below freezing — are exacerbating potholes on roadways, Roop said. She also noted that snow typically acts as a kind of insulator that limits how far a deep freeze can penetrate the ground. But when cold can reach farther into the soil — like in the southern parts of the Midwest, which Roop said is projected to see less persistent snowpack over time — it can jeopardize infrastructure like septic systems that were originally supposed to be buried deep enough to avoid the threat of freezing temperatures. READ MORE: How winter weather can affect your drinking water Extreme weather events can reveal critical weak points in larger infrastructure systems, too. In February 2021, the central U.S. saw a rare but not unprecedented winter storm that led to extended power outages and boil water advisories in many communities, Bertrand said. More than 200 people died as a direct or indirect result of the storm. Black and brown communities shouldered a disproportionate burden in terms of losing power. Non-white populations experienced more of those outages at the time — regardless of their income level — as a result of “long-standing marginalization,” according to the NCA5’s Southern Great Plains chapter, which Bertrand co-authored. It’s possible to winterize energy grids to withstand colder temperatures, she noted, and El Paso, Texas, is an example of how to pull that effort off. That city made widespread improvements to its power infrastructure following an extreme cold event in 2011. Those efforts later paid off when El Paso suffered fewer outages in 2021, according to the NCA5. “I think that one’s a really good kind of success story of what you can do, and that it actually worked,” Bertrand said. Still time to ‘tap the brakes’ Even as communities and ecosystems feel the disorienting results of a warming world, experts say there is still time to take action. The mandate is in part a practical one. Failing to mitigate and adapt to climate change, Bertrand emphasized, comes with a “far greater” cost than the one associated with paying to prevent future expensive damages. She also noted that there are plenty of examples of communities taking the reins on those efforts. READ MORE: How to slash emissions across the U.S. economy, according to experts For Roop, encouraging more people to both recognize the threat of climate change and see themselves as part of the solution is top of mind. No single effort can solve these myriad challenges, but she believes this crisis presents an opportunity for thoughtful conversations about shared priorities and what we want our communities to look like moving forward. That’s important, Roop said, because the choices we make today shape our future reality. “I don’t want anyone to get [the] impression that it’s game over,” Burakowski said. “It’s definitely game on. It’s time to really get super serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, to tap the brakes on this warming and bring this freight train to a halt.”