It’s almost December, which will mean the winter months have arrived. But what kind of winter will it be?
Forecasters have been making their calls on the 2023-24 winter season for months. It’s a complicated practice and some have backed off in recent years. But it can be helpful for businesses to plan and residents to have some expectation of the season ahead.
When is the first day of winter?
Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 and continues through the end of February. Meteorologists group months of similar weather for ease of record keeping.
Astronomical winter 2023 begins on the winter solstice on Dec. 21. That’s also the shortest day of the year with 9 hours and 15 minutes of daylight in the Lehigh Valley. Winter lasts until the vernal equinox on March 19.
2023-24 winter forecasts
Those watching the weather look for patterns. This year, an El Niño weather pattern — the effects of warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean — is expected to strengthen into the winter season. Winters with a prominent El Niño tend to be warmer and less snowy than average across much of the eastern U.S., but not every El Niño pattern behaves the same.
But it would be difficult to be less snowy than last winter. At just 6.3 inches between October and May, it was the second least snowy in the Lehigh Valley in the last 50 years. Forecasters generally expect at least a turn toward average (which here is around 30 inches of snow over a season).
That’s the general outlook. Forecasts differ on the details.
The 2023-24 winter may be slightly milder than normal in the Northeast, AccuWeather says.AccuWeather
• AccuWeather: The Northeast can generally expect a milder winter and snowfall approaching average. Conditions did not materialize for a predicted snowy early season nor’easter in November, but the best window for the big storms will be from late January through February. A stormy end to winter will prolong the ski season.
• EPAWA: After a relatively dry November, December should be close to average in both temperature and snowfall. The Lehigh Valley-based forecaster’s long-range outlook doesn’t project beyond that, but it is monitoring signs of a potential snow storm between Dec. 7-9.
The Farmers' Almanac 2023-2024 winter forecast predicts a colder, wetter winter for the Northeast this year.
• Farmers’ Almanac : The I-95 corridor between Washington, D.C., and Boston will experience lots of rain, sleet and snowstorms, according to this forecast issued in August. Locally, a dusting of snow is expected around Christmastime, January will be more cold than snowy, February will see decent snowfall, and winter will hang on through March with temperature swings and late snow.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 40-50% chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.NOAA
• NOAA: For meteorological winter (December, January and February) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says southeastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey have 40-50% chance of a warmer-than-average season and a 33-40% chance at more precipitation than usual. Unlike other forecasts, NOAA doesn’t attempt to say if that will take the form of snow, rain or ice.
The 2024 edition of The Old Farmer's Almanac was released on Aug. 29, 2023. It includes the 2023-24 winter weather forecast, which calls for mild and wet weather for most of Texas.Provided by The Old Farmer's Almanac
• Old Farmer’s Almanac: Winter in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey will be mild but snowy, according to this projection issued in August. Snowy spells are expected in late December, late January and mid-February. The coldest period will be from mid- to late January into mid-February. A white Christmas is possible in higher elevations.
Areas south of the Lehigh Valley face a high threat of stormy weather this upcoming winter, with a lesser chance to the north, according to an early winter forecast issued by NY NJ PA Weather. But not every winter storm will bring snow; some will bring ice or rain.Steven DiMartino | NY NJ PA Weather
• NY NJ PA Weather: The winter will be an active but volatile one for the tri-state area with a mix of snow, ice and rain. One or two storms may be the difference between an above- or below-average snow season, which will start warmer in December and trend colder in February. Generally, areas to the south along the I-95 corridor will have better chances for snowstorms.
• The Weather Channel: A temperature outlook issued in October anticipates a warmer December and January overall in the Northeast, with a return to generally average temperatures in February.
• WeatherWorks: The Hackettstown-based private forecaster predicts roughly average temperatures and precipitation for our area, becoming colder and stormier late in the season. But factors will have to come together to realize potential for mid- to late-season high-impact snowstorms. “An active pattern doesn’t mean a snowy one,” the forecast says.
When does the Lehigh Valley get its first snow?
The area’s first measurable snow of the season — at least a tenth of an inch — typically falls around early December. The National Weather Service says Dec. 3, on average. But it has happened as early as Oct. 18 and as late as Jan. 13 at Lehigh Valley International Airport.
Current weather radar
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Steve Novak may be reached at snovak@lehighvalleylive.com.